Welcome back to The Macro Weekly. Each week, I curate the best investment insights of the past week. Thank you for being a subscriber.
Read
Michael Kao on the principle of orthogonality and its application to portfolio construction.
WSJ Fed reporter Nick Timiraos on why the recession is always six months away and how it’s complicating the Fed’s goal of lowering inflation.
Mohamed El-Erian on how the market’s volatile reaction to Fed commentary could lead to financial instability and puts the Fed in a dilemma.
Lykeion’s Charts of the Month. Highlights include Starbucks as a proxy of geopolitical and economic forces, a reminder that structural shifts often take a long time to play out, and the lack of diversification in retail investor flows.
The FT’s Gillian Tett on the implications of the yield curve inversion and the dangers of assuming a return to the “normality” of the post-GFC era.
Mohamed El-Erian on his policy recommendations for the closure of SVB and the importance of the Fed not making further policy errors in its response.
Listen
Ray Dalio discusses using his new Principles: Your Guided Journal on the Richer, Wiser, Happier podcast to develop your life principles. He also touches on a few investing topics, such as building a resilient portfolio, dealing with inflation, and investing in China.
Andy Constan, the founder of Damped Spring Advisors, joined the Excess Returns podcast to discuss the lessons he learned at Bridgewater and the four pillars of his investing framework: growth, inflation, flows, and risk premia.
Mike Green of Simplify explains why we’re heading to recession on the Forward Guidance podcast.
Watch
New Bridgewater Co-CIO Karen Karniol-Tambour on how she’s seeing the world. Karen talks about the paradigm shift to a world with greater inflationary forces, markets’ failure to price in such a world, and how it’s likely to resolve. She also looks at some of the current challenges facing investors, including currency movements and constructing a portfolio in a world with many potential future outcomes.
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